When Kalonzo Musyoka took a swipe at Machakos senator Johnson Muthama, only those who have not been hearing the unspoken quarrel between the two were taken by surprise. In the roadside tirade, Kalonzo accused Muthama of working with James Orengo to see that Raila Odinga becomes the Cord flagbearer. Now there is also talk that Raila has been engaged in talks with Musalia Mudavadi and Gideon Moi about a Super Alliance for the Kenya 2017 Elections.
Kalonzo’s fear is not Raila but that Raila could be out to propel Mudavadi as a compromise candidate. To Kalonzo, Muthama is falling prey to Raila and his political tricks to deny him the ticket to the presidency on a Cord ticket.
It is not only Kalonzo who is concerned with the Mudavadi factor in the emerging so-called national super alliance but also Bungoma senator Moses Wetang’ula, another co-principal in Cord who has been keenly following the unfolding political events in the country.
Kalonzo and Wetang’ula believe Raila of late has sidelined them as he works on his plan B to get rid of the Jubilee government.
A key ally of Wetang’ula told us that to show Raila is ready for any eventuality, he has of late sidelined Gem MP Jakoyo Midiwo and his brother Oburu Odinga, people believed to be on the forefront in pushing for his presidency.
Mudavadi is one of those outside Cord who has been accommodated in the Nasa together with Gideon and Bomet governor Isaac Ruto of Chama cha Mashinani.
We have established that in order to avoid bitter fallout in Cord, a section of the coalition is angling and pushing for an outsider to fly the flag as a compromise candidate.
Raila is said to be endearing himself to the Moi family to fix William Ruto as the Kalenjin kingpin. Raila and the Mois have no time for Ruto hence their newfound marriage of convenience to hand down to Ruto a lasting political lesson.
Unconfirmed reports say Kuresoi South MP Zachayo Cheruiyot and former intelligence boss Wilson Boinett who played a pivotal role and held sway in the Moi era are part of the wider scheme. Cheruiyot was Internal Security PS in the Moi regime.
They intend to ensure there is a run-off come 2017 so that they can use it to remove Ruto from his position especially if they will have won a considerable number of seats in Rift Valley. The idea is to deny Ruto the absolute majority in representation in the region and claim the difference as their stake to negotiate for Uhuru Kenyatta’s succession as official region kingpins.
Those in support of Mudavadi argue that he can counter the influence of Jubilee in Rift Valley and allow Uhuru with only Mount Kenya vote given his roots and national influence on national issues. In 2013, Gideon supported Mudavadi. The two are said to have ideologies that resonate.
Gideon is to be groomed as a future presidential candidate.
The schemers want to deny Uhuru the substantial Kalenjin vote. The fact that ODM and Kanu can work together cannot be ruled out. During the Kericho senate by-election, ODM supported Kanu candidate Paul Sang against its own Stellah Chepkurui and so was Amani in favour Sang.
Behind the scenes, the power games have seen Kalonzo and Wetang’ula being sidelined. Raila’s first scheme is to have himself go for presidency. If it fails to work, Raila will back an appealing and compromise candidate, with a national face. Those who know Raila well however say that there is no way he is going not to be in the presidential ballot paper even if you bring Jesus Christ as Cord compromise candidate.
The other option being worked out is to have Mudavadi as Raila’s running mate. Raila is said to be keen to work with Mudavadi to win Nyanza- Western vote block. Then, we have Mudavadi teaming up with Gideon as another option in the offing to scuttle Jubilee.
The national super alliance will be ready by December to send Uhuru home, opposition leaders we spoke to vow. Opposition luminaries have been meeting secretly to chart the way forward for unity of purpose during private meetings and to avoid the media, such sessions are being held in residences with those involved at times driving themselves to the venues. Charity Ngilu and Cyrus Jirongo are part of the team. Already, legal minds are said to be panel-beating the agreement.
Initially, it was said Raila team was pushing to force a run-off between him and Uhuru.
Odinga team wanted Kalonzo and Mudavadi to be on the presidential ballot paper in 2017 to influence a run-off. But the move has been shelved on the basis that anything can happen during a runoff with parties involved offering better deals.
As such, with a matrix Jubilee can be defeated in a round-one duel. It involves penetrating Rift Valley, uniting other vote blocs while watching events unfolding in Uhuru Central province and the entire Mount Kenya.
Besides corruption that is tearing the Jubilee government into tatters, the alliance is aware voters are a disgusted lot due to rampant tribalism and entrenched nepotism.
Ngilu who was sacked from the cabinet is said of late to have no respect for Jubilee even if she were to be reinstated today forcing Uhuru to remark his sacked ministers are now fighting him.
Other communities targeted to be rolled in include the Maasai, Kisii and the Somalis. To lock Jubilee in Coast, Mombasa governor Hassan Joho and his Kilifi counterpart Amason Kingi are the conductors. In the North Eastern region, the key man is former Farah Maalim. Others in the list are prominent businessmen, who feel short-changed by Jubilee in investments.
NASA is said to incorporate trade unions, religious groups, private entrepreneurs, student’s leaders and various civil societies in their unfolding political scenarios. The consensus method in picking who should be the flag bearer is the most favoured and giving Jubilee a hell of a nightmare.